Nuclear non-proliferation is widely regarded as a Good Idea. This is not nuclear non-proliferation. The funny thing about nuclear weapons, is that not only do they kill lots of innocent people and render whole swaths of ground uninhabitable for many, many years, they also blow lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of tiny, yet harmful radioactive particles into the air. The funny thing about air is that it can actually transport these particles from one place to another using things like “wind” which is caused by “pressure differences” (stop me, Mr. President, if this gets too technical for you). These particles can be transported by this “wind” hundreds and thousands of miles to entirely new places with new people and will eventually be deposited in things like, oh say, drinking water. This in turn leads to things like “radiation poisoning”. In fact, in a study I read a year or two ago (but am too lazy to look up and link to) atmospheric scientists actually did a study about where the air from our atomic testing in the Pacific Ocean went and what effect that might have had on people. They found that the air from some of these tests made their way to certain regions of the united states which, oddly enough had had much higher rates of cancer for the 20 or 30 years after the tests were completed. Hmmmm. This is just one reason why allowing India to make lots more nuclear weapons, is a Bad Idea. Another quick one is that India doesn’t really like Pakistan, who also happens to have a couple of nuclear weapons. So now, we have a new arms race in Asia. Wheee!
Here’s another bad idea: electing as leader of the free world someone who doesn’t see that casually allowing India to make lots of nuclear weapons is a Horrible, Fucking Retarded and Bad Idea. He’s not a harmless, nincompoop president, when he pulls shit like this. It is actually a good thing to have leaders with a higher intelligence than the rest of the population. It would be nice if some grown-ups could speak up around election time and say “Hey everybody, you actually don’t want to vote for a guy you could have a beer with, because he says the craziest shit when he’s drunk. It would probably be good to have a guy who’s smart and inquisitive. Just saying.”
Just saying.
I agree with your comments on nuclear weapons, they are terrible weapons with horrible consequences. However NPT has never really addressed the aspect of getting rid of these weapons it only addresses the aspect of them not spreading. It allowed nuclear states in 1968 to remain nuclear states while it barred other nations from building nuclear weapons with assistance from the NSG.
ReplyDeleteThat's the primary reason India and Israel did not join it. India always had intentions of developing nukes primarily because of china. India conducted its first test in 1974, at that point only US, UK and Russia had ratified the NPT other nuclear countries such as china and France had not ratified the treaty. India has been in isolation for 30 years and NPT had not stopped it from becoming a nuclear weapons state.
While china being a signatory to the NPT has proliferated nuclear weapons to other countries (I think we all know which countries they are). While during this time India has behaved as responsible nuclear state, following the NPT in sprit even though it is not a member of NPT.
India is the only nuclear weapon state that has “no first use of nukes and no use of nukes on a non nuclear country” policy.
Irrespective of what happens with this latest nuclear deal, India will continue to develop the weapons to meet its nuclear minimum deterrent policy. Without this deal it will use the spent fuel from 22 reactors to convert it to weapons grade plutonium in its fast breeder reactors. If this nuclear deal comes through it will have only 8 reactors to work with. No wonder the head of IAEA has endorsed this deal.
India has limited amount of uranium deposits however it has plenty of thorium deposits and India is in the initial stages of developing a thorium based reactor. So with or without this deal India will continue to be a nuclear weapons state. So it’s up to the world to decide if India is a responsible nuclear state or not.
By helping India with its civilian nuclear program US is doing rest of the world a favor, because it relieves the pressures on fossil fuels and can help in potentially sustaining the oil prices close to the current levels in the future. This will help the whole world's economy not just US and India.
You make some good points, Anonymous. However, I do think that I have to nit pick just a bit.
ReplyDeleteFirst, one of the results of this agreement is that the US sends the message that you can be a freelance nuclear state but as long as you play nice with us, we won't make too big a fuss about it. North Korea and Iran are undoubtedly seeing this as yet another case of US hypocracy, where the difference is that at least India (in the forseeable future) won't point their nukes at us or people we like.
I don't deny that India has been a pretty good citizen with it's nukes, but you can't deny that the Hindu-Muslim conflict and the struggle over Kashmir is going to be causing India and Pakistan's neighbors some sleepless nights, especially since India now has carte-blanche to expand their arsenal however large they want. Somehow, the argument that they can only do so more slowly now isn't comforting.
Hey, tell ya' what. Why don't we just take the excess inventory of the US and former Soviet Union, and spread them around equitably? That way, everyone's on an even footing! M.A.D. worked for the US and USSR! C'mon, the Cold War wasn't THAT bad!
Finally, I'm not at all certain that helping India develop a nuclear energy program is going to "relieve the pressure" on fossil fuels. How long before those reactors come online and actually start providing power? Is an adequate power distribution infrastructure already in place? What resources will be used to build those plants, that infrastructure? Is India going to start decommissioning it's coal and natural gas power plants as soon as the nuclear plants come online? Is India's power program going to effect rapidly rising fuel consumption in China and much of the third world? (Strangely enough, even though China is a nuclear nation, they are rapidly growing to challenge America's status as top oil consumer.) Will India's power program encourage Americans to drive less, conserve more, live closer to work? I'm guessing no.
If you think oil prices are going to stay near today's level for long, I think you're dreaming. You might consider reading "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons.
The good news is that when Saudi Arabia runs out of oil, they run out of money to spread Wahabi. The bad news is that when Saudi Arabia runs out of oil, they could go through a violent revolution leaving yet another radical theocracy in control in an already unstable region.
The refutation is fine if you think that governmental attitudes towards nukes are fine as is. However, I hate nuclear weapons. Disarmament needs to be a high priority of every politician in a position to advocate it. It's just a little silly to live in a world where MAD is considered reasonable policy. Also silly is the possibility of nuclear war due to misunderstanding and/or computer glitch (how well do we think Russia is maintaining it's early warning systems)? They're just dangerous to anyone who uses them and I don't think any country in their right mind really wants to see another bomb dropped anywhere. I think the rush to get them now is because we've made it abundantly clear that if you already have nukes, we leave you alone. I think a strong disarmament push would be well received in the world community. I also think the strongest opponents to nuclear disarmament will be the U.S.
ReplyDeleteBut my real beef with this story was that Bush just swooped in and made them cave to the rest of India's demands because he was on a trip and needed a photo op. It's just scary to have a man of that, ahem, caliber able to do things like that. I just don't think he understands the broader implications of decisions like that.