Thursday, February 09, 2017
Lukewarm
That last post is simultaneously not reasonable enough and not revolutionary enough. It is lukewarm and I spit it out of my mouth.
Friday, February 03, 2017
Fear on all Frequencies
I'm not really the best political analysis guy, but we're all trying to make sense of the world now I guess.
I'm doing terribly in my quest to disconnect from Twitter. Every time I vow to quit something publicly I end up doubling-down. So I hereby vow to stay on twitter forever in hopes that I am too stupid to catch my own reverse psychology.
Out of all the crazy things coming out of the first two(!) weeks of the Trump presidency, the immigration ban is the thing that seems to rile the increasingly disloyal opposition. I say disloyal with some affection, because Trump really hasn't earned any sort of trust or loyalty, as much as he'd like to think otherwise. From the left's perspective this is a solution to a problem that didn't exist and the source of a whole new set of issues that potentially undermine our foreign policy goals. There was already a strict vetting program in place, the countries listed have never produced a terrorist that has harmed an U.S. citizen, the countries that terrorists DO come from are mysteriously not on the list, etc. On the surface, it seems pointless cruelty to immigrants and refugees, especially those in transit on the day it was rolled out, and pointlessly antagonistic to allies in the muslim world who were working with us to fight terrorism.
From the right, it all seems to have strong approval. He's doing exactly what he said he'd do! 100% A+ fabulous work. The right believes immigrants and refugees are much more dangerous than the "MSM" has led us to believe, so "strong" action is justified. The thinking seems to be that "libs" and they're soft hearts and heads will destroy us all. Mysteriously, the critic-disappearing head of state in Russia is our new best ally in this. I will, for the moment, politely ignore the obvious glee they seem to take in the despair of their political opponents.
We basically have a complete disagreement on some basic facts about the state of the world, which brings us back to the "fake news" problem that has been building for decades but finally reached critical mass during the election. What "the facts are" seem to be less and less based on verifiable evidence and more and more based on whatever the powerful people we are ideologically aligned with say they are. This is a problem with some urgency that we should resolve as quickly as possible. It doesn't matter how many statistics liberals marshal, how many scientific papers they cite, how many times they reach out their hands in friendship (not really currently, but you know, theoretically) if conservative media is screaming we're reaching for their guns! refugees are smuggling a bomb! They're coming to take our jerbs! over every little thing?
It would help if liberals would ring the fear siren a little less too. They had a little more credibility before the Trump era in this regard, but the fear-mongering over climate change (speaking as a climate scientist who thinks we should be very concerned!) got a little over-the-top at times. They were sometimes making the "just trust me, you should be afraid" argument when sticking to the rational, evidence-driven argument would have more than sufficed. For instance, there's nothing stupider than the conservative "ha! a cold day in winter, take THAT global warming." and the liberal "ha! a hot day in summer, take THAT denialists!" argument. The evidence for global warming is in global temperatures over time, not specific weather patterns where it is very hard to fairly sort and rank all contributing factors in a short amount of time. So arguing over what a particular weather system means in terms of future climate is kind of a fool's game and if you believe in science and rationality you shouldn't play it.
With the arrival of Trump though, the left has decided to go all fear all the time too. I've already lost track of the alarming tweets/posts/hearsay that turn out to be a bad faith interpretation of events or a rumor that turned out too bad to be true. Which is unfortunate, because I think there's enough alarming material that actually checks out (that republicans are communicating in plain english) to focus on. Which is to say, the left is clearly not immune to hysterical over-reaction or blind devotion to the sirens wailing FEAR! 24/7. Although, in a truly alarming governmental era, it's hard to know what the appropriate amount of concern is, especially when the media has been crying wolf so long for ratings that we've lost the ability to discern the truly frightening from the manipulative and sensationalistic.
I'm fairly concerned about the long-term impact of a Trump presidency too, don't get me wrong, but I'm also concerned about retaining some connection to verifiable reality. I don't see what gets better if both parties just spiral down in a reactionary spiral of fear and violence, in complete abandonment of principles that it turns out we never believed in enough to act on when times got even the tiniest bit scary. I'm also concerned that there appears to be no rational counter-movement to fear-mongering hysteria from either side. For the right it's time to "send a message" to immigrants and stick it to liberals with a shit-eating grin and if you're not on board Trump will tank you with a tweet. For the left it's time to "punch nazis" and any attitude that isn't full on "punch those goddamn nazis" is treated as potential collaboration. There's not even a very good case being made for who is and isn't a nazi (although I do not shed too many tears for Milo or Spencer in particular), it's generally argumentation by "It is known Khaleesi." Which, I'm sorry, is not sufficient.
I believe in opposing the nutso policies coming out of the Trump administration, but I'm losing faith in the left's ability to define core principles, act strategically and rationally and effectively push back against everything that's making us so angry. To marshal fear and anger and turn it into an effective counter-movement. Who would we even rally around right now? What core principles would fight for? It's arguably enough to be Anti-Trump in a moment were Trump seems to be flirting with the idea of autocracy in the U.S. But we're going to have to learn to pick our goddamn battles intelligently and fight them effectively. Like soon. The opposition to Trump needs to be a tangible alternative with a coherent message rebutting every bad decision with a better alternative, not simply a mindless howling every time he tweets another stupid thing (although I feel that same urge too). We do not have that in the Democrats right now, but it is sorely needed.
Long-term though? We're going to need to be so much better than this and I suspect we are not yet prepared to be. But we could be, if we wanted it bad enough. Step one is turning the fear siren down. Or, you know, off.
My next line of thinking is what principles/ideas/ideals allow someone to find confidence and courage in the face of fear? And why does no one seem to have that anymore? If it is something we have lost I suspect we will need to rediscover it.
I'm doing terribly in my quest to disconnect from Twitter. Every time I vow to quit something publicly I end up doubling-down. So I hereby vow to stay on twitter forever in hopes that I am too stupid to catch my own reverse psychology.
Out of all the crazy things coming out of the first two(!) weeks of the Trump presidency, the immigration ban is the thing that seems to rile the increasingly disloyal opposition. I say disloyal with some affection, because Trump really hasn't earned any sort of trust or loyalty, as much as he'd like to think otherwise. From the left's perspective this is a solution to a problem that didn't exist and the source of a whole new set of issues that potentially undermine our foreign policy goals. There was already a strict vetting program in place, the countries listed have never produced a terrorist that has harmed an U.S. citizen, the countries that terrorists DO come from are mysteriously not on the list, etc. On the surface, it seems pointless cruelty to immigrants and refugees, especially those in transit on the day it was rolled out, and pointlessly antagonistic to allies in the muslim world who were working with us to fight terrorism.
From the right, it all seems to have strong approval. He's doing exactly what he said he'd do! 100% A+ fabulous work. The right believes immigrants and refugees are much more dangerous than the "MSM" has led us to believe, so "strong" action is justified. The thinking seems to be that "libs" and they're soft hearts and heads will destroy us all. Mysteriously, the critic-disappearing head of state in Russia is our new best ally in this. I will, for the moment, politely ignore the obvious glee they seem to take in the despair of their political opponents.
We basically have a complete disagreement on some basic facts about the state of the world, which brings us back to the "fake news" problem that has been building for decades but finally reached critical mass during the election. What "the facts are" seem to be less and less based on verifiable evidence and more and more based on whatever the powerful people we are ideologically aligned with say they are. This is a problem with some urgency that we should resolve as quickly as possible. It doesn't matter how many statistics liberals marshal, how many scientific papers they cite, how many times they reach out their hands in friendship (not really currently, but you know, theoretically) if conservative media is screaming we're reaching for their guns! refugees are smuggling a bomb! They're coming to take our jerbs! over every little thing?
It would help if liberals would ring the fear siren a little less too. They had a little more credibility before the Trump era in this regard, but the fear-mongering over climate change (speaking as a climate scientist who thinks we should be very concerned!) got a little over-the-top at times. They were sometimes making the "just trust me, you should be afraid" argument when sticking to the rational, evidence-driven argument would have more than sufficed. For instance, there's nothing stupider than the conservative "ha! a cold day in winter, take THAT global warming." and the liberal "ha! a hot day in summer, take THAT denialists!" argument. The evidence for global warming is in global temperatures over time, not specific weather patterns where it is very hard to fairly sort and rank all contributing factors in a short amount of time. So arguing over what a particular weather system means in terms of future climate is kind of a fool's game and if you believe in science and rationality you shouldn't play it.
With the arrival of Trump though, the left has decided to go all fear all the time too. I've already lost track of the alarming tweets/posts/hearsay that turn out to be a bad faith interpretation of events or a rumor that turned out too bad to be true. Which is unfortunate, because I think there's enough alarming material that actually checks out (that republicans are communicating in plain english) to focus on. Which is to say, the left is clearly not immune to hysterical over-reaction or blind devotion to the sirens wailing FEAR! 24/7. Although, in a truly alarming governmental era, it's hard to know what the appropriate amount of concern is, especially when the media has been crying wolf so long for ratings that we've lost the ability to discern the truly frightening from the manipulative and sensationalistic.
I'm fairly concerned about the long-term impact of a Trump presidency too, don't get me wrong, but I'm also concerned about retaining some connection to verifiable reality. I don't see what gets better if both parties just spiral down in a reactionary spiral of fear and violence, in complete abandonment of principles that it turns out we never believed in enough to act on when times got even the tiniest bit scary. I'm also concerned that there appears to be no rational counter-movement to fear-mongering hysteria from either side. For the right it's time to "send a message" to immigrants and stick it to liberals with a shit-eating grin and if you're not on board Trump will tank you with a tweet. For the left it's time to "punch nazis" and any attitude that isn't full on "punch those goddamn nazis" is treated as potential collaboration. There's not even a very good case being made for who is and isn't a nazi (although I do not shed too many tears for Milo or Spencer in particular), it's generally argumentation by "It is known Khaleesi." Which, I'm sorry, is not sufficient.
I believe in opposing the nutso policies coming out of the Trump administration, but I'm losing faith in the left's ability to define core principles, act strategically and rationally and effectively push back against everything that's making us so angry. To marshal fear and anger and turn it into an effective counter-movement. Who would we even rally around right now? What core principles would fight for? It's arguably enough to be Anti-Trump in a moment were Trump seems to be flirting with the idea of autocracy in the U.S. But we're going to have to learn to pick our goddamn battles intelligently and fight them effectively. Like soon. The opposition to Trump needs to be a tangible alternative with a coherent message rebutting every bad decision with a better alternative, not simply a mindless howling every time he tweets another stupid thing (although I feel that same urge too). We do not have that in the Democrats right now, but it is sorely needed.
Long-term though? We're going to need to be so much better than this and I suspect we are not yet prepared to be. But we could be, if we wanted it bad enough. Step one is turning the fear siren down. Or, you know, off.
My next line of thinking is what principles/ideas/ideals allow someone to find confidence and courage in the face of fear? And why does no one seem to have that anymore? If it is something we have lost I suspect we will need to rediscover it.
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